Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
Aflac Incorporated (ticker: AFL) is a leading U.S. insurance provider specializing in supplemental insurance, offering a range of products designed to protect policyholders against unexpected medical expenses and financial burdens. With a robust presence in both the U.S. and Japan, Aflac is renowned for its competitive advantage in supplemental health insurance, particularly its innovative cancer and accident policies. The company's strong financial performance, characterized by consistent revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, underscores its resilience and ability to deliver value to shareholders while navigating the evolving insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $107.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.22 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.94% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AFL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2024
End date: August 19, 2025
a = 4.8741
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0280
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.86%
August 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8741 + -0.0001 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.7348)
= $113.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8741 + -0.0001 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.6228)
= $101.78
August 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8741 + -0.0001 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.6829)
= $108.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8741 + -0.0001 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.5708)
= $96.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $107.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.22 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2025
End date: October 27, 2025
a = 3.5914
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0228
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0228) – 1
= 9.53%
May 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5914 + 0.0006 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.6510)
= $104.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5914 + 0.0006 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.5600)
= $95.58
October 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5914 + 0.0006 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.7474)
= $115.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5914 + 0.0006 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0228)
= Exp(4.6564)
= $105.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.94% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.