Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
Aflac Incorporated (ticker: AFL) is a leading U.S. insurance provider specializing in supplemental insurance, offering a range of products designed to protect policyholders against unexpected medical expenses and financial burdens. With a robust presence in both the U.S. and Japan, Aflac is renowned for its competitive advantage in supplemental health insurance, particularly its innovative cancer and accident policies. The company's strong financial performance, characterized by consistent revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, underscores its resilience and ability to deliver value to shareholders while navigating the evolving insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.71% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of February 23, 2026 was $112.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.79% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of February 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AFL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 4.5437
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0341
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.61%
August 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,266 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5437 + 0.0001 × 1,266 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(4.7045)
= $110.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,266 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5437 + 0.0001 × 1,266 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(4.5682)
= $96.37
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5437 + 0.0001 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(4.7440)
= $114.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5437 + 0.0001 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(4.6076)
= $100.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.71% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of February 23, 2026 was $112.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2025
End date: February 23, 2026
a = 3.9121
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0232
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0232) – 1
= 9.71%
May 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9121 + 0.0004 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.6525)
= $104.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9121 + 0.0004 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.5599)
= $95.57
February 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9121 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.7772)
= $118.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9121 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.6846)
= $108.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.79% per annum.
- AFL price at the close of February 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.