Stock Price Trends

Jackson Financial Inc (JXN)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 166.61% per annum.
  • JXN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.87% per annum.
  • JXN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 1.5872

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0520

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 166.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.12%

May 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5872 + 0.0027 × 616 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.3462)
= $28.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5872 + 0.0027 × 616 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.1382)
= $23.06

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5872 + 0.0027 × 1,058 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.5337)
= $93.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5872 + 0.0027 × 1,058 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.3257)
= $75.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 166.61% per annum.
  • JXN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $85.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 2.4581

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0419

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.25%

March 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4581 + 0.0018 × 931 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.2436)
= $69.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4581 + 0.0018 × 931 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.0760)
= $58.91

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4581 + 0.0018 × 1,058 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.4757)
= $87.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4581 + 0.0018 × 1,058 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.3081)
= $74.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.87% per annum.
  • JXN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.