Primerica Inc (PRI)
Primerica, Inc., offers financial products to middle-income households in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.95% per annum.
- PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $250.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.66 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 3.5612
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0527
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.45%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(4.8287)
= $125.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(4.6181)
= $101.30
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.6380)
= $280.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.4273)
= $227.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.95% per annum.
- PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $250.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.66 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.2155
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.26%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,287 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.2398)
= $188.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,287 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.80
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.6232)
= $276.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.4061)
= $222.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.