Stock Price Trends

Primerica Inc (PRI)

Primerica, Inc., offers financial products to middle-income households in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.95% per annum.
  • PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $250.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.66 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
  • PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 10, 2024

a = 3.5612

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0527

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.45%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(4.8287)
= $125.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(4.6181)
= $101.30

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.6380)
= $280.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5612 + 0.0011 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.4273)
= $227.53

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.95% per annum.
  • PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $250.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.66 (2.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.2155

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.26%

February 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,287 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.2398)
= $188.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y887)
= Exp(a + b × X887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,287 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.80

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.6232)
= $276.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2155 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(5.4061)
= $222.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
  • PRI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.