Stock Price Trends

Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU)

for 140 years, prudential financial (nyse:pru) has helped people grow and protect their wealth. we offer individual and institutional clients a wide array of financial products and services. today, we are one of the world’s largest financial services institutions. we have over $1 trillion of assets under management as of september 30, 2015, and approximately $3.5 trillion of gross life insurance in force worldwide as of december 31, 2014. we have operations in the united states, asia, europe and latin america. we also have one of the most recognized and trusted brand symbols: the rock® , an icon of strength, stability, expertise and innovation. we measure our long-term success on our ability to deliver value for shareholders, meet customer needs, attract and develop the best talent in our industry, offer an inclusive work environment where employees can develop to their full potential, and give back to the communities where we live and work.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.09% per annum.
  • PRU price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $107.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.53 (5.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.00% per annum.
  • PRU price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

May 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.09% per annum.
  • PRU price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $107.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.53 (5.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.00% per annum.
  • PRU price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.