Stock Price Trends

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.19% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $77.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: February 10, 2025

a = 0.5100

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0429

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.72%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.9413)
= $51.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.7696)
= $43.36

February 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.4711)
= $87.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.2995)
= $73.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.19% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $77.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: February 26, 2025

a = 3.4564

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0242

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.16%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.3235)
= $75.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.2267)
= $68.49

February 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.3776)
= $79.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.2808)
= $72.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.