# Unum Group (UNM)

unum is a company of people serving people. a fortune 500 company, unum is a market leader in disability, group life, and voluntary benefits. our products and services meet the needs of a diverse workforce that includes four generations, growing ethnic diversity and changing family dynamics. a strong commitment to social responsibility is one of unum's core values. in fact, we place particular emphasis on contributing to positive change in the communities in which we live and work. helping our communities become better is a natural extension of the commitment we make each and every day to our customers — to help employers manage their businesses and employees protect their families and livelihoods.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.88% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 28, 2023 was $42.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.36 (3.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of November 28, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.91 (2.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of UNM price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2020

End date: October 31, 2023

a = 2.3856

b = 0.0009

s = 0.1090

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1

= 37.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1090) – 1

= 54.66%

#### March 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{318})

= Exp(a + b × X_{318} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.3856 + 0.0009 × 466 + 2 × 0.1090)

= Exp(3.0137)

= $20.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{318})

= Exp(a + b × X_{318} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.3856 + 0.0009 × 466 – 2 × 0.1090)

= Exp(2.5776)

= $13.17

#### October 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,237})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,237} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.3856 + 0.0009 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1090)

= Exp(4.1849)

= $65.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,237})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,237} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.3856 + 0.0009 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1090)

= Exp(3.7489)

= $42.47

### Secondary Trend

Start date: August 10, 2022

End date: November 28, 2023

a = 3.0465

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0595

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1

= 18.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0595) – 1

= 26.88%

#### August 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{929})

= Exp(a + b × X_{929} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,350 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0465 + 0.0005 × 1,350 + 2 × 0.0595)

= Exp(3.7837)

= $43.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{929})

= Exp(a + b × X_{929} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,350 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0465 + 0.0005 × 1,350 – 2 × 0.0595)

= Exp(3.5456)

= $34.66

#### November 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,256})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,256} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0465 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0595)

= Exp(4.0012)

= $54.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,256})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,256} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0465 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0595)

= Exp(3.7631)

= $43.08