Unum Group (UNM)
Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.19% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $77.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 0.5100
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0429
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.72%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.9413)
= $51.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.7696)
= $43.36
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.4711)
= $87.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5100 + 0.0022 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.2995)
= $73.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.19% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $77.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: February 26, 2025
a = 3.4564
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.16%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.3235)
= $75.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.2267)
= $68.49
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.3776)
= $79.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4564 + 0.0005 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.2808)
= $72.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.