# Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.68% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $53.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.63 (76.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.73% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of UNM price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2020

End date: June 16, 2021

a = 1.9775

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0745

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1

= 105.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0745) – 1

= 34.71%

#### March 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{157})

= Exp(a + b × X_{157} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 229 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 229 + 2 × 0.0745)

= Exp(2.5790)

= $13.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{157})

= Exp(a + b × X_{157} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 229 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 229 – 2 × 0.0745)

= Exp(2.2810)

= $9.79

#### June 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{478})

= Exp(a + b × X_{478} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 693 + 2 × 0.0745)

= Exp(3.4957)

= $32.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{478})

= Exp(a + b × X_{478} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 693 – 2 × 0.0745)

= Exp(3.1977)

= $24.48

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.68% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $53.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.63 (76.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: November 9, 2020

End date: July 23, 2024

a = 2.6575

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0932

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1

= 31.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0932) – 1

= 45.19%

#### November 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{328})

= Exp(a + b × X_{328} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 474 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 474 + 2 × 0.0932)

= Exp(3.2018)

= $24.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{328})

= Exp(a + b × X_{328} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 474 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 474 – 2 × 0.0932)

= Exp(2.8289)

= $16.93

#### July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0932)

= Exp(4.2225)

= $68.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0932)

= Exp(3.8496)

= $46.98

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.73% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.