Stock Price Trends

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.41% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $80.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.85% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 1, 2023
End date: June 9, 2025

a = 2.1213

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0568

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.50%

November 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1213 + 0.0013 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.7963)
= $44.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y833)
= Exp(a + b × X833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1213 + 0.0013 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.5692)
= $35.49

June 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1213 + 0.0013 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(4.5550)
= $95.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1213 + 0.0013 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(4.3279)
= $75.78

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.41% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $80.47 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025

a = 3.4574

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0310

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.21%

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4574 + 0.0005 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.3402)
= $76.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4574 + 0.0005 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.2161)
= $67.77

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4574 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.4652)
= $86.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4574 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.3411)
= $76.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.85% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.