Unum Group (UNM)
Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 339.09% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of December 11, 2024 was $72.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (2.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.30% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of December 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: December 6, 2024
a = -3.0366
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 339.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0250) – 1
= 10.50%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0366 + 0.0041 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.0137)
= $55.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0366 + 0.0041 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(3.9138)
= $50.09
December 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0366 + 0.0041 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.3947)
= $81.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0366 + 0.0041 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(4.2949)
= $73.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 339.09% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of December 11, 2024 was $72.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (2.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 26, 2024
End date: December 11, 2024
a = 10.7186
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0094
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0094) – 1
= 3.82%
November 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7186 + -0.0035 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(4.3685)
= $78.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7186 + -0.0035 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(4.3310)
= $76.02
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7186 + -0.0035 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(4.3158)
= $74.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7186 + -0.0035 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0094)
= Exp(4.2783)
= $72.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.30% per annum.
- UNM price at the close of December 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.