Stock Price Trends

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group is a Chattanooga, Tennessee-based Fortune 500 insurance company formerly known as UnumProvident.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.68% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $53.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.63 (76.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.73% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: June 16, 2021

a = 1.9775

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0745

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0745) – 1
= 34.71%

March 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y157)
= Exp(a + b × X157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 229 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(2.5790)
= $13.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y157)
= Exp(a + b × X157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 229 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(2.2810)
= $9.79

June 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 693 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.4957)
= $32.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9775 + 0.0020 × 693 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.1977)
= $24.48

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.68% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $53.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $175.63 (76.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 2.6575

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0932

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0932) – 1
= 45.19%

November 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 474 + 2 × 0.0932)
= Exp(3.2018)
= $24.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 474 – 2 × 0.0932)
= Exp(2.8289)
= $16.93

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0932)
= Exp(4.2225)
= $68.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6575 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0932)
= Exp(3.8496)
= $46.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.73% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.