Stock Price Trends

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group is a leading provider of financial protection benefits based in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and is recognized as a Fortune 500 company. Specializing in disability income protection, life insurance, and supplemental benefits, Unum serves a diverse range of clients, including individuals and organizations. The company has a strong commitment to helping people secure their financial futures, leveraging innovative solutions to meet the evolving needs of its policyholders. With a solid track record and a focus on sustainable growth, Unum Group is well-positioned to navigate the competitive insurance landscape while delivering value to its stakeholders.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.61% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $71.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of February 11, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.91 (2.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2024
End date: February 11, 2026

a = 4.2076

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0449

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.68%

November 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2076 + 0.0001 × 1,371 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.3942)
= $80.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2076 + 0.0001 × 1,371 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.2145)
= $67.66

February 11, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2076 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.4262)
= $83.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2076 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.2466)
= $69.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.61% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of February 11, 2026 was $71.41 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2025
End date: February 11, 2026

a = 3.4533

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0325

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.90%

July 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4533 + 0.0005 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.3275)
= $75.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4533 + 0.0005 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.1974)
= $66.51

February 11, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4533 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.4249)
= $83.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4533 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.2948)
= $73.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.88% per annum.
  • UNM price at the close of February 11, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.91 (2.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.