Stock Price Trends

CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)

CNO Financial Group, Inc. develops, markets, and manages health insurance, annuities, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for the middle-income and senior markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.41% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $36.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.56 (4.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.78% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: May 20, 2025

a = 2.0665

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0589

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0589) – 1
= 26.56%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 976 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0665 + 0.0009 × 976 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.0919)
= $22.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 976 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0665 + 0.0009 × 976 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(2.8563)
= $17.40

May 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0665 + 0.0009 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.8348)
= $46.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0665 + 0.0009 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(3.5993)
= $36.57

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.41% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $36.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.56 (4.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: July 9, 2025

a = 4.5947

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0309

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1
= 13.16%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0005 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(3.7650)
= $43.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0005 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(3.6413)
= $38.14

July 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(3.6775)
= $39.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(3.5539)
= $34.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.78% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.