Stock Price Trends

CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)

CNO Financial Group, Inc. develops, markets, and manages health insurance, annuities, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for the middle-income and senior markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.95% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $41.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.73% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 1.9274

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0586

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0586) – 1
= 26.41%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9274 + 0.0009 × 1,119 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.0968)
= $22.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y772)
= Exp(a + b × X772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9274 + 0.0009 × 1,119 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(2.8625)
= $17.51

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9274 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.7589)
= $42.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9274 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.5245)
= $33.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.95% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $41.42 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 0.8901

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0427

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.61%

April 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0016 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.3235)
= $27.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0016 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.1528)
= $23.40

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.8197)
= $45.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8901 + 0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.6489)
= $38.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.73% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.