Stock Price Trends

CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)

CNO Financial Group, Inc. develops, markets, and manages health insurance, annuities, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for the middle-income and senior markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.40% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $34.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 97.36% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: October 4, 2024

a = 2.0258

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0497

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 22.01%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0258 + 0.0008 × 1,253 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.1146)
= $22.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0258 + 0.0008 × 1,253 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(2.9157)
= $18.46

October 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0258 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.5654)
= $35.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0258 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(3.3665)
= $28.98

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.40% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $34.97 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 4, 2024

a = 0.1585

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0367

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 97.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.84%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1585 + 0.0019 × 1,647 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.2998)
= $27.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1585 + 0.0019 × 1,647 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.1528)
= $23.40

October 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1585 + 0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.6295)
= $37.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1585 + 0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.4825)
= $32.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 97.36% per annum.
  • CNO price at the close of October 4, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.