Aptiv PLC (APTV)
Aptiv plc is an auto parts company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.10% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APTV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.4110
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1271) – 1
= 66.25%
January 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4110 + -0.0006 × 531 + 2 × 0.1271)
= Exp(5.3422)
= $208.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4110 + -0.0006 × 531 – 2 × 0.1271)
= Exp(4.8339)
= $125.70
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4110 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1271)
= Exp(4.5548)
= $95.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4110 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1271)
= Exp(4.0465)
= $57.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.0705
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1043
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1043) – 1
= 51.77%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0705 + -0.0004 × 951 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(4.9132)
= $136.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0705 + -0.0004 × 951 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(4.4960)
= $89.66
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0705 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(4.5765)
= $97.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0705 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1043)
= Exp(4.1593)
= $64.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.10% per annum.
- APTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.