Stock Price Trends

Aptiv PLC (APTV)

Aptiv plc is an auto parts company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.30% per annum.
  • APTV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $56.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.03% per annum.
  • APTV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APTV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 5.6142

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0731

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.96%

January 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 999 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6142 + -0.0009 × 999 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.8878)
= $132.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y688)
= Exp(a + b × X688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 999 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6142 + -0.0009 × 999 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.5954)
= $99.03

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6142 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(4.1663)
= $64.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6142 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.8739)
= $48.13

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.30% per annum.
  • APTV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $56.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 11.7428

b = -0.0043

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.25%

February 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7428 + -0.0043 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.3588)
= $78.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7428 + -0.0043 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.1416)
= $62.91

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7428 + -0.0043 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.0421)
= $56.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7428 + -0.0043 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.8250)
= $45.83

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.03% per annum.
  • APTV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.