Gentex Corporation (GNTX)
Gentex Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and supplies digital vision, connected car, tinted glass, and fire protection products in the United States, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Zeeland, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.59% per annum.
- GNTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $32.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.55% per annum.
- GNTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 2.6066
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0506
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0506) – 1
= 22.41%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6066 + 0.0005 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(3.3140)
= $27.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6066 + 0.0005 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(3.1118)
= $22.46
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6066 + 0.0005 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(3.6820)
= $39.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6066 + 0.0005 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(3.4797)
= $32.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.59% per annum.
- GNTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $32.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.4703
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.20%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4703 + -0.0005 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.6212)
= $37.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4703 + -0.0005 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.5517)
= $34.87
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4703 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.5398)
= $34.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4703 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.4703)
= $32.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.55% per annum.
- GNTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.