BorgWarner Inc (BWA)
BorgWarner Inc. is an American multinational automotive supplier headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.30% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $37.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (3.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.05% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 4.7793
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0627
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0627) – 1
= 28.49%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0007 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(3.9220)
= $50.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0007 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(3.6714)
= $39.31
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0007 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(3.5906)
= $36.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0007 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(3.3400)
= $28.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.30% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $37.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (3.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -0.0618
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 108.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.34%
February 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0618 + 0.0020 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.4820)
= $32.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0618 + 0.0020 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.3393)
= $28.20
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0618 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.6706)
= $39.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0618 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.5280)
= $34.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.05% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.