BorgWarner Inc (BWA)
BorgWarner Inc. is an American multinational automotive supplier headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.11% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $32.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5153
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.58%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5153 + -0.0006 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.9038)
= $49.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5153 + -0.0006 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.6370)
= $37.98
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5153 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.5889)
= $36.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5153 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.3221)
= $27.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.11% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $32.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.4172
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0499) – 1
= 22.12%
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + 0.0001 × 1,557 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.6025)
= $36.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + 0.0001 × 1,557 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.4027)
= $30.05
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.6172)
= $37.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4172 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.4174)
= $30.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- BWA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.