Stock Price Trends

Lear Corporation (LEA)

Lear Corporation designs, develops, designs, manufactures, assembles, and supplies automotive seats, electrical distribution systems, and related components for automotive original equipment manufacturers in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. The company is headquartered in Southfield, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.14% per annum.
  • LEA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $84.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 807.90% per annum.
  • LEA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LEA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 6.3092

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0482

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0482) – 1
= 21.27%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3092 + -0.0010 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(5.0521)
= $156.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3092 + -0.0010 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(4.8593)
= $128.94

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3092 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(4.5400)
= $93.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3092 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0482)
= Exp(4.3472)
= $77.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.14% per annum.
  • LEA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $84.66 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = -6.5894

b = 0.0060

s = 0.0173

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 807.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0173) – 1
= 7.18%

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.5894 + 0.0060 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.3663)
= $78.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.5894 + 0.0060 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.2970)
= $73.48

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.5894 + 0.0060 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.4751)
= $87.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.5894 + 0.0060 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.4058)
= $81.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 807.90% per annum.
  • LEA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.