Stock Price Trends

Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF)

Fox Factory Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Braselton, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.98% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.85% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FOXF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 7.1233

b = -0.0022

s = 0.1169

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1169) – 1
= 59.63%

January 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1233 + -0.0022 × 1,007 + 2 × 0.1169)
= Exp(5.1556)
= $173.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1233 + -0.0022 × 1,007 – 2 × 0.1169)
= Exp(4.6879)
= $108.62

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1233 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1169)
= Exp(3.3672)
= $29.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1233 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1169)
= Exp(2.8995)
= $18.17

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.98% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.60 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 8.7092

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0530

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1
= 23.62%

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7092 + -0.0031 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(3.8375)
= $46.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7092 + -0.0031 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(3.6255)
= $37.54

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7092 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(3.1411)
= $23.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7092 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(2.9291)
= $18.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.85% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.