Stock Price Trends

Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF)

Fox Factory Holding Corp. is a leading global innovator in the design and manufacturing of exceptional performance biking and outdoor sports products, primarily specializing in high-end suspension components for bicycles, off-road vehicles, and power sports. Headquartered in Braselton, Georgia, the company is committed to engineering excellence and industry-leading performance, serving a diverse customer base and expanding its market presence through strategic acquisitions and technological advancements. With a strong focus on quality and sustainability, Fox Factory is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing trends in outdoor recreational activities and electric vehicles, promising robust long-term growth potential.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.53% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of December 31, 2025 was $17.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.56% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of December 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FOXF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2023
End date: May 29, 2025

a = 6.5447

b = -0.0022

s = 0.1184

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1184) – 1
= 60.59%

January 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5447 + -0.0022 × 750 + 2 × 0.1184)
= Exp(5.1623)
= $174.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5447 + -0.0022 × 750 – 2 × 0.1184)
= Exp(4.6887)
= $108.71

May 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5447 + -0.0022 × 1,606 + 2 × 0.1184)
= Exp(3.3143)
= $27.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5447 + -0.0022 × 1,606 – 2 × 0.1184)
= Exp(2.8406)
= $17.13

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.53% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of December 31, 2025 was $17.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 3, 2023
End date: November 6, 2025

a = 5.7158

b = -0.0015

s = 0.1395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1395) – 1
= 74.68%

November 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7158 + -0.0015 × 1,033 + 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(4.4255)
= $83.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y714)
= Exp(a + b × X714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7158 + -0.0015 × 1,033 – 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(3.8677)
= $47.83

November 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7158 + -0.0015 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(3.3105)
= $27.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7158 + -0.0015 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.1395)
= Exp(2.7527)
= $15.68

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.56% per annum.
  • FOXF price at the close of December 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.