Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)
Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a global hotel franchisor. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2021
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 4.8585
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0767
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.89%
May 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8585 + -0.0001 × 380 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9875)
= $146.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8585 + -0.0001 × 380 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.86
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8585 + -0.0001 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9093)
= $135.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8585 + -0.0001 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6026)
= $99.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 4.5416
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.06%
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y538)
= Exp(a + b × X538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5416 + 0.0002 × 778 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.8250)
= $124.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y538)
= Exp(a + b × X538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5416 + 0.0002 × 778 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.5698)
= $96.53
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5416 + 0.0002 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.0296)
= $152.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5416 + 0.0002 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.7745)
= $118.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.