Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)
Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a global hotel franchisor. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.12% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $117.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2021
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 5.0435
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.07%
September 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0435 + -0.0002 × 863 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(5.0372)
= $154.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0435 + -0.0002 × 863 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.7514)
= $115.75
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0435 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.8707)
= $130.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0435 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.5849)
= $98.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.12% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $117.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.6885
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.18%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6885 + 0.0001 × 1,123 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.8461)
= $127.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6885 + 0.0001 × 1,123 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.6540)
= $105.01
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6885 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.8846)
= $132.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6885 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.6925)
= $109.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.