Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., formerly Hilton Hotels Corporation, is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.74% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $221.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.66 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.19% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.15 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 4.0719
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0568
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.53%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + 0.0008 × 775 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(4.8343)
= $125.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + 0.0008 × 775 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(4.6069)
= $100.18
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + 0.0008 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.6697)
= $289.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0719 + 0.0008 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.4423)
= $230.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.74% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $221.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.66 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 12.9018
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.86%
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9018 + -0.0042 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6871)
= $295.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9018 + -0.0042 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.5662)
= $261.43
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9018 + -0.0042 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.3743)
= $215.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9018 + -0.0042 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.2533)
= $191.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.19% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.15 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.