Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., formerly Hilton Hotels Corporation, is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a broad portfolio of hotels and resorts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.21% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $208.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.82% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.71 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 2.9201
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.97%
May 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9201 + 0.0013 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.9771)
= $145.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9201 + 0.0013 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.8118)
= $122.95
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9201 + 0.0013 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(5.4361)
= $229.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9201 + 0.0013 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(5.2708)
= $194.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.21% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $208.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 8.2519
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.20%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2519 + -0.0016 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.3998)
= $221.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2519 + -0.0016 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.3303)
= $206.50
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2519 + -0.0016 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.3183)
= $204.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2519 + -0.0016 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.2488)
= $190.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.82% per annum.
- HLT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.71 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.