Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)
Hyatt Hotels Corporation is a hotel company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 133.28% per annum.
- H price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $152.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.22 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.87% per annum.
- H price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of H price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2023
End date: April 15, 2024
a = 0.9101
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 133.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.84%
September 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9101 + 0.0023 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.6766)
= $107.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9101 + 0.0023 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.4956)
= $89.62
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9101 + 0.0023 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.1755)
= $176.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9101 + 0.0023 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.9945)
= $147.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 133.28% per annum.
- H price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $152.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.22 (2.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 6.6409
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.20%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6409 + -0.0009 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.1055)
= $164.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6409 + -0.0009 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.0360)
= $153.86
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6409 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.0429)
= $154.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6409 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.9734)
= $144.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.87% per annum.
- H price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.