Stock Price Trends

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)

Hyatt Hotels Corporation is a hotel company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.51% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $112.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.47 (1.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.33% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of H price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 13.6455

b = -0.0049

s = 0.0391

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.94%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6455 + -0.0049 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(5.1913)
= $179.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6455 + -0.0049 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(5.0348)
= $153.67

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6455 + -0.0049 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.7370)
= $114.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6455 + -0.0049 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.5805)
= $97.57

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.51% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $112.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.47 (1.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.8182

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0372

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0372) – 1
= 16.05%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8182 + 0.0005 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.7646)
= $117.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8182 + 0.0005 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.6158)
= $101.06

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8182 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.7763)
= $118.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8182 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.6274)
= $102.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.33% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.