Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Carnival Corporation & plc is a British-American cruise operator, currently the world's largest travel leisure company, with a combined fleet of over 100 vessels across 10 cruise line brands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.18% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $15.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.48% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 0.8675
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1631) – 1
= 91.99%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8675 + 0.0011 × 1,141 + 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(2.4440)
= $11.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8675 + 0.0011 × 1,141 – 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(1.7917)
= $6.00
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8675 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(3.1924)
= $24.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8675 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(2.5401)
= $12.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.18% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $15.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 5.3659
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.53%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3659 + -0.0015 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.9945)
= $19.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3659 + -0.0015 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.7995)
= $16.44
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3659 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.7860)
= $16.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3659 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.5911)
= $13.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.48% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.