Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Carnival Corporation & plc is a British-American cruise operator, currently the world's largest travel leisure company, with a combined fleet of over 100 vessels across 10 cruise line brands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.01% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $18.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.22% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 1.3234
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1563) – 1
= 86.85%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3234 + 0.0010 × 775 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(2.4397)
= $11.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y535)
= Exp(a + b × X535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3234 + 0.0010 × 775 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(1.8145)
= $6.14
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3234 + 0.0010 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(3.4964)
= $33.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3234 + 0.0010 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.1563)
= Exp(2.8713)
= $17.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.01% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $18.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 13.9153
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.68%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9153 + -0.0061 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.4447)
= $31.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9153 + -0.0061 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.2241)
= $25.13
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9153 + -0.0061 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.9260)
= $18.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9153 + -0.0061 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.7054)
= $14.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.22% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.