Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., is a cruise company in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and internationally. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.32% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $15.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.08% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NCLH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024
a = 1.9409
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1305
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1305) – 1
= 68.51%
June 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9409 + 0.0006 × 1,121 + 2 × 0.1305)
= Exp(2.8206)
= $16.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9409 + 0.0006 × 1,121 – 2 × 0.1305)
= Exp(2.2987)
= $9.96
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9409 + 0.0006 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1305)
= Exp(3.2026)
= $24.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9409 + 0.0006 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1305)
= Exp(2.6807)
= $14.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.32% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was $15.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 11.6694
b = -0.0049
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.91%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6694 + -0.0049 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.1477)
= $23.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6694 + -0.0049 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.9415)
= $18.94
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6694 + -0.0049 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.8849)
= $17.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6694 + -0.0049 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.6786)
= $14.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.08% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of May 13, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.