Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., is a cruise company in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and internationally. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.85% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $17.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (5.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.73% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.86 (5.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NCLH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 2.0436
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1404) – 1
= 75.31%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0436 + 0.0006 × 771 + 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.8100)
= $16.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0436 + 0.0006 × 771 – 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.2486)
= $9.47
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0436 + 0.0006 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(3.4399)
= $31.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0436 + 0.0006 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.8785)
= $17.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.85% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $17.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (5.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 16.5292
b = -0.0076
s = 0.0615
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0076) – 1
= -93.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.89%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5292 + -0.0076 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.4986)
= $33.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5292 + -0.0076 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.2526)
= $25.86
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5292 + -0.0076 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.8538)
= $17.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5292 + -0.0076 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.6079)
= $13.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.73% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.86 (5.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.