Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells and manages vacation-owned resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.25% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $42.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.98% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HGV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2021
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.8896
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0995
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0995) – 1
= 48.90%
April 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8896 + -0.0001 × 704 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(4.0251)
= $55.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8896 + -0.0001 × 704 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.6269)
= $37.60
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8896 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.9238)
= $50.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8896 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.5257)
= $33.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.25% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $42.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 1.5968
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.78%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5968 + 0.0012 × 1,606 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.6875)
= $39.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5968 + 0.0012 × 1,606 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.4741)
= $32.27
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5968 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.9568)
= $52.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5968 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.7435)
= $42.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.98% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.