Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells and manages vacation-owned resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.45% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $34.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.29% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HGV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.8846
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0942
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0942) – 1
= 45.73%
April 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8846 + -0.0001 × 352 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(4.0290)
= $56.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8846 + -0.0001 × 352 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.6524)
= $38.57
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8846 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.8452)
= $46.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8846 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.4686)
= $32.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.45% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $34.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 9.0859
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0463
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.33%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0859 + -0.0031 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.8692)
= $47.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0859 + -0.0031 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.6841)
= $39.81
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0859 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.5906)
= $36.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0859 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(3.4055)
= $30.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.29% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.