Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)
Expedia Group, Inc. is an American online travel shopping company for consumer and small business travel. Its websites, which are primarily travel fare aggregators and travel metasearch engines, include Expedia.com, Vrbo (previously HomeAway), Hotels.com, Hotwire.com, Orbitz, Travelocity, trivago and CarRentals.com.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.32% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $116.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.96% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.59 (3.81%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 3.5389
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1057
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1057) – 1
= 52.62%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5389 + 0.0008 × 1,234 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(4.6972)
= $109.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5389 + 0.0008 × 1,234 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(4.2744)
= $71.84
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5389 + 0.0008 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(5.1484)
= $172.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5389 + 0.0008 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(4.7256)
= $112.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.32% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $116.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 6.9372
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.76%
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9372 + -0.0011 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(5.0973)
= $163.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9372 + -0.0011 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.9597)
= $142.55
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9372 + -0.0011 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.9348)
= $139.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9372 + -0.0011 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.7971)
= $121.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.96% per annum.
- EXPE price at the close of May 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.59 (3.81%).