Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells and manages vacation ownership and related products. The company is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.57% per annum.
- VAC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $55.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.60 (1.07%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.63% per annum.
- VAC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.3033
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1214) – 1
= 62.53%
February 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y207)
= Exp(a + b × X207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3033 + -0.0006 × 301 + 2 × 0.1214)
= Exp(5.3768)
= $216.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y207)
= Exp(a + b × X207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3033 + -0.0006 × 301 – 2 × 0.1214)
= Exp(4.8911)
= $133.10
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3033 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1214)
= Exp(4.5193)
= $91.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3033 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1214)
= Exp(4.0336)
= $56.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.57% per annum.
- VAC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $55.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.60 (1.07%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 15.7744
b = -0.0065
s = 0.0562
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0065) – 1
= -90.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0562) – 1
= 25.20%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7744 + -0.0065 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(4.6400)
= $103.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7744 + -0.0065 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(4.4152)
= $82.70
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7744 + -0.0065 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(4.0498)
= $57.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7744 + -0.0065 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(3.8250)
= $45.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.63% per annum.
- VAC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.