Marriott International Inc (MAR)
Marriott International, Inc. is an American multinational company that operates, franchises, and licenses lodging including hotel, residential, and timeshare properties. It is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.18% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $236.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.41 (6.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 226.89% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 12.9532
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0335
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.36%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9532 + -0.0042 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.7890)
= $326.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9532 + -0.0042 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.6548)
= $285.67
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9532 + -0.0042 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.4345)
= $229.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9532 + -0.0042 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.3004)
= $200.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 78.18% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $236.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.41 (6.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = -0.4726
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0304
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 226.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0304) – 1
= 12.93%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4726 + 0.0032 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(5.4325)
= $228.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4726 + 0.0032 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(5.3109)
= $202.53
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4726 + 0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(5.5104)
= $247.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4726 + 0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(5.3888)
= $218.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 226.89% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.