Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)
Vail Resorts, Inc. operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. The company is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $184.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.93% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.8461
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0898
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0898) – 1
= 43.24%
February 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8461 + -0.0003 × 568 + 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(5.8438)
= $345.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8461 + -0.0003 × 568 – 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(5.4845)
= $240.92
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8461 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(5.4414)
= $230.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8461 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(5.0821)
= $161.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $184.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 8.5032
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.56%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5032 + -0.0018 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.5198)
= $249.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5032 + -0.0018 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3665)
= $214.12
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5032 + -0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2215)
= $185.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5032 + -0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.0683)
= $158.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.93% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.