Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)
Vail Resorts, Inc. operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States. The company is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.96% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $140.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.0367
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.82%
April 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0367 + -0.0005 × 1,076 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.5681)
= $261.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0367 + -0.0005 × 1,076 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.3384)
= $208.18
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0367 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(5.1619)
= $174.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0367 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.9323)
= $138.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.96% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $140.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.7591
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0348
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0348) – 1
= 14.94%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7591 + -0.0021 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.3176)
= $203.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7591 + -0.0021 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.1784)
= $177.40
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7591 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.0146)
= $150.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7591 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(4.8754)
= $131.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- MTN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.