Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is an American global cruise holding company incorporated in Liberia and based in Miami, Florida, US.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.61% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $141.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.86% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 1.3991
b = 0.0020
s = 0.1097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1097) – 1
= 55.06%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3991 + 0.0020 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.1097)
= Exp(3.8591)
= $47.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3991 + 0.0020 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.1097)
= Exp(3.4204)
= $30.58
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3991 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1097)
= Exp(5.2448)
= $189.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3991 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1097)
= Exp(4.8061)
= $122.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.61% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $141.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.2077
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0401
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.38%
December 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2077 + 0.0009 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.8516)
= $127.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2077 + 0.0009 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.6913)
= $109.00
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2077 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.9999)
= $148.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2077 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.8396)
= $126.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.86% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.