Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is an American global cruise holding company incorporated in Liberia and based in Miami, Florida, US.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.16% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $216.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.36 (7.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.58% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.49 (11.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 2.1655
b = 0.0019
s = 0.1031
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1031) – 1
= 51.03%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1655 + 0.0019 × 772 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(3.8499)
= $46.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1655 + 0.0019 × 772 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(3.4376)
= $31.11
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1655 + 0.0019 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.7628)
= $318.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1655 + 0.0019 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.3505)
= $210.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.16% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $216.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.36 (7.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 28, 2025
End date: April 21, 2025
a = 13.9164
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0447
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.60%
January 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9164 + -0.0048 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.6979)
= $298.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9164 + -0.0048 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.5189)
= $249.36
April 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9164 + -0.0048 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.3004)
= $200.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9164 + -0.0048 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.1215)
= $167.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.58% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.49 (11.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.