Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)
Royal Caribbean Group, a leading global cruise holding company based in Miami, Florida, offers a diverse portfolio of vacation experiences through its innovative fleet of cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. With a commitment to delivering exceptional service and unparalleled onboard experiences, the company caters to a wide demographic of travelers, appealing to families, couples, and solo adventurers alike. As a pioneer in the cruise industry, Royal Caribbean Group is dedicated to sustainable tourism practices and is actively working to reduce its environmental footprint through innovative technologies and responsible operational methods. Its extensive global presence and robust booking platform position it favorably for recovery and growth as travel demand rebounds in the post-pandemic landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.32% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of October 14, 2025 was $313.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.30% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of October 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: October 14, 2025
a = 2.5867
b = 0.0018
s = 0.1150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.43%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y416)
= Exp(a + b × X416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5867 + 0.0018 × 603 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.9058)
= $49.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y416)
= Exp(a + b × X416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5867 + 0.0018 × 603 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.4457)
= $31.36
October 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5867 + 0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(6.1127)
= $451.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5867 + 0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.6526)
= $285.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.32% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of October 14, 2025 was $313.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2025
End date: October 14, 2025
a = 11.9608
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.19%
August 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9608 + -0.0034 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.9214)
= $372.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9608 + -0.0034 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.8520)
= $347.94
October 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9608 + -0.0034 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.7539)
= $315.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9608 + -0.0034 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(5.6845)
= $294.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.30% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of October 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.