Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)
Royal Caribbean Group, a leading global cruise holding company based in Miami, Florida, offers a diverse portfolio of vacation experiences through its innovative fleet of cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. With a commitment to delivering exceptional service and unparalleled onboard experiences, the company caters to a wide demographic of travelers, appealing to families, couples, and solo adventurers alike. As a pioneer in the cruise industry, Royal Caribbean Group is dedicated to sustainable tourism practices and is actively working to reduce its environmental footprint through innovative technologies and responsible operational methods. Its extensive global presence and robust booking platform position it favorably for recovery and growth as travel demand rebounds in the post-pandemic landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.69% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of February 25, 2026 was $313.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.46 (12.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.90% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of February 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.52 (4.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: October 27, 2025
a = 2.8337
b = 0.0018
s = 0.1156
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1156) – 1
= 58.82%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8337 + 0.0018 × 468 + 2 × 0.1156)
= Exp(3.9059)
= $49.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8337 + 0.0018 × 468 – 2 × 0.1156)
= Exp(3.4433)
= $31.29
October 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8337 + 0.0018 × 1,704 + 2 × 0.1156)
= Exp(6.1270)
= $458.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8337 + 0.0018 × 1,704 – 2 × 0.1156)
= Exp(5.6644)
= $288.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.69% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of February 25, 2026 was $313.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.46 (12.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 7.6283
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0734
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0734) – 1
= 34.12%
June 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6283 + -0.0011 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(5.9821)
= $396.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6283 + -0.0011 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(5.6885)
= $295.45
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6283 + -0.0011 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(5.7371)
= $310.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6283 + -0.0011 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0734)
= Exp(5.4435)
= $231.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.90% per annum.
- RCL price at the close of February 25, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.52 (4.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.