Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)
Travel Leisure Co. offers hospitality products and services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.56% per annum.
- TNL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.04 (28.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.85% per annum.
- TNL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TNL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: December 7, 2023
a = 4.2877
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0898
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0898) – 1
= 43.23%
February 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2877 + -0.0005 × 560 + 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(4.1896)
= $66.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2877 + -0.0005 × 560 – 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(3.8304)
= $46.08
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2877 + -0.0005 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(3.6763)
= $39.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2877 + -0.0005 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0898)
= Exp(3.3170)
= $27.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.56% per annum.
- TNL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.04 (28.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.0834
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0741
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0741) – 1
= 34.51%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0834 + 0.0004 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(3.6686)
= $39.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0834 + 0.0004 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(3.3721)
= $29.14
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0834 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(3.9243)
= $50.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0834 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(3.6278)
= $37.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.85% per annum.
- TNL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.