Stock Price Trends

Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS)

Keysight Technologies, or Keysight, is an American company that manufactures electronics test and measurement equipment and software.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.47% per annum.
  • KEYS price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.81% per annum.
  • KEYS price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEYS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 9, 2021
End date: July 19, 2024

a = 5.2912

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0954

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0954) – 1
= 46.43%

July 9, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y496)
= Exp(a + b × X496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0002 × 718 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.3503)
= $210.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y496)
= Exp(a + b × X496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0002 × 718 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.9689)
= $143.87

July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.1476)
= $172.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.7662)
= $117.47

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.47% per annum.
  • KEYS price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 18, 2023
End date: July 19, 2024

a = 4.3334

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0725

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.63%

August 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3334 + 0.0004 × 1,488 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.0414)
= $154.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3334 + 0.0004 × 1,488 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.7515)
= $115.75

July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3334 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.1685)
= $175.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3334 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.8786)
= $131.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.81% per annum.
  • KEYS price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.