Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY)
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated is an American industrial conglomerate.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.18% per annum.
- TDY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $415.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.22% per annum.
- TDY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.60 (3.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TDY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 29, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.0972
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.11%
March 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0972 + -0.0001 × 612 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(6.1802)
= $483.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0972 + -0.0001 × 612 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.9403)
= $380.06
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0972 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(6.1070)
= $448.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0972 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.8671)
= $353.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.18% per annum.
- TDY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $415.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 22, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.1413
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0257
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0257) – 1
= 10.82%
December 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1413 + -0.0007 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(6.1404)
= $464.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1413 + -0.0007 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(6.0376)
= $418.90
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1413 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.9992)
= $403.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1413 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.8965)
= $363.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.22% per annum.
- TDY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.60 (3.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.