Stock Price Trends

One Gas Inc (OGS)

ONE Gas, Inc. is a regulated natural gas distribution company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $75.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.67% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: June 12, 2025

a = 3.3781

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0410

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.84%

October 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y803)
= Exp(a + b × X803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3781 + 0.0006 × 1,164 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.1004)
= $60.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y803)
= Exp(a + b × X803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3781 + 0.0006 × 1,164 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.9363)
= $51.23

June 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3781 + 0.0006 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.4282)
= $83.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3781 + 0.0006 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.2641)
= $71.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $75.64 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 10, 2024
End date: August 15, 2025

a = 3.9905

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0340

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.56%

September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9905 + 0.0002 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.3210)
= $75.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9905 + 0.0002 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.1850)
= $65.70

August 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9905 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.3809)
= $79.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9905 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.2450)
= $69.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.67% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.