Stock Price Trends

One Gas Inc (OGS)

ONE Gas, Inc. is a regulated natural gas distribution company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $71.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.79% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: June 12, 2025

a = 3.3523

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0410

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.84%

October 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.1004)
= $60.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.9363)
= $51.23

June 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.4282)
= $83.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.2641)
= $71.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $71.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 16, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 6.3352

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0198

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.22%

April 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3975)
= $81.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3184)
= $75.07

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3127)
= $74.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.2337)
= $68.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.79% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.