Stock Price Trends

One Gas Inc (OGS)

ONE Gas, Inc. is a regulated natural gas distribution company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.31% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $81.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.76% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 3.2958

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0411

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.88%

October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2958 + 0.0006 × 1,267 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.1053)
= $60.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2958 + 0.0006 × 1,267 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(3.9408)
= $51.46

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2958 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.4256)
= $83.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2958 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.2611)
= $70.89

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.31% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $81.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.3431

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0192

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.99%

December 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3431 + 0.0011 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.2458)
= $69.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3431 + 0.0011 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.1689)
= $64.65

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3431 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.4007)
= $81.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3431 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.3238)
= $75.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.76% per annum.
  • OGS price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.