One Gas Inc (OGS)
ONE Gas, Inc. is a regulated natural gas distribution company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
- OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $71.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: June 12, 2025
a = 3.3523
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0410
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0410) – 1
= 17.84%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,211 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.1004)
= $60.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,211 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(3.9363)
= $51.23
June 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.4282)
= $83.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3523 + 0.0006 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0410)
= Exp(4.2641)
= $71.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.23% per annum.
- OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $71.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 6.3352
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.22%
April 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3975)
= $81.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3184)
= $75.07
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.3127)
= $74.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3352 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(4.2337)
= $68.97
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.79% per annum.
- OGS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.