# NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services portfolio company, provides regulated gas distribution and retail and wholesale energy services. The company is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.70% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $45.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.12 (12.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.47% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of NJR price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: November 18, 2022

End date: April 18, 2024

a = 4.3418

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1

= -13.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1

= 21.41%

#### November 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{782})

= Exp(a + b × X_{782} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,131 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3418 + -0.0004 × 1,131 + 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(3.9824)

= $53.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{782})

= Exp(a + b × X_{782} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,131 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3418 + -0.0004 × 1,131 – 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(3.7884)

= $44.19

#### April 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,135})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,135} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3418 + -0.0004 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(3.7737)

= $43.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,135})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,135} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3418 + -0.0004 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(3.5798)

= $35.86

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.70% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $45.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.12 (12.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: August 14, 2023

End date: October 11, 2024

a = 3.2255

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1

= 12.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1

= 13.47%

#### August 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{964})

= Exp(a + b × X_{964} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,400 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2255 + 0.0003 × 1,400 + 2 × 0.0316)

= Exp(3.7395)

= $42.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{964})

= Exp(a + b × X_{964} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,400 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2255 + 0.0003 × 1,400 – 2 × 0.0316)

= Exp(3.6131)

= $37.08

#### October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2255 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0316)

= Exp(3.8760)

= $48.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.2255 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0316)

= Exp(3.7496)

= $42.50

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.47% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.