Stock Price Trends

New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

new jersey resources, a fortune 1000 company, provides reliable energy and natural gas services including transportation, distribution and asset management in states from the gulf coast to the new england regions, including the mid-continent region, the west coast and canada, while investing in and maintaining an extensive infrastructure to support future growth. with over $2.5 billion in annual revenues, njr safely and reliably operates and maintains 6,700 miles of natural gas transportation and distribution infrastructure to serve nearly half a million customers; develops and manages a diverse portfolio of more than 777,000 dth/d of transportation capacity and 52 bcf of storage capacity; and provides appliance installation, repair and contract service to approximately 150,000 homes and businesses. additionally, njr holds investments in midstream assets through equity partnerships including steckman ridge and iroquois. through conserve to preserve®, njr is helping customers save energ

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.95% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $42.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (1.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.93% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NJR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: December 1, 2023

a = 5.2099

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0401

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.40%

January 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2099 + -0.0009 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.0709)
= $58.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2099 + -0.0009 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.9105)
= $49.92

December 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2099 + -0.0009 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.7878)
= $44.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2099 + -0.0009 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.6274)
= $37.61

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.95% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $42.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (1.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: January 12, 2024

a = 3.2692

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0268

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.30%

August 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2692 + 0.0003 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.7861)
= $44.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2692 + 0.0003 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.6790)
= $39.61

January 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2692 + 0.0003 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.8307)
= $46.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2692 + 0.0003 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.7236)
= $41.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.93% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.