NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services portfolio company, provides regulated gas distribution and retail and wholesale energy services. The company is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.02% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $44.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.60% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of June 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.50 (1.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NJR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2022
End date: June 13, 2025
a = 3.6231
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.85%
February 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0001 × 620 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.8282)
= $45.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0001 × 620 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.5518)
= $34.87
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.9582)
= $52.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6231 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.6818)
= $39.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.02% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $44.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2023
End date: June 13, 2025
a = 3.2408
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.74%
August 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2408 + 0.0003 × 1,162 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.7157)
= $41.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2408 + 0.0003 × 1,162 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.5781)
= $35.81
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2408 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.9470)
= $51.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2408 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.8095)
= $45.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.60% per annum.
- NJR price at the close of June 13, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.50 (1.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.