Stock Price Trends

NewJersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services portfolio company, provides regulated gas distribution and retail and wholesale energy services. The company is headquartered in Wall, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $41.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.25% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NJR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2022
End date: April 18, 2024

a = 4.4027

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0483

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.33%

November 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4027 + -0.0004 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.9913)
= $54.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4027 + -0.0004 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.7979)
= $44.61

April 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4027 + -0.0004 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.7824)
= $43.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4027 + -0.0004 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.5890)
= $36.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.79% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $41.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 3.4542

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0277

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.71%

August 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4542 + 0.0002 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.7602)
= $42.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4542 + 0.0002 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.6494)
= $38.45

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4542 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.8125)
= $45.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4542 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(3.7017)
= $40.52

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.25% per annum.
  • NJR price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.