Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
Atmos Energy Corporation, based in Dallas, Texas, is a leading natural gas distribution company in the United States, serving over three million customers across eight states. With a strong commitment to safety, reliability, and environmental sustainability, Atmos Energy plays a critical role in delivering clean and efficient energy solutions. The company is dedicated to investing in infrastructure improvements and technology to enhance system efficiency, while also focusing on customer service excellence and community engagement. Leveraging a solid financial foundation and strategic growth initiatives, Atmos Energy is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving energy landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.51% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of February 17, 2026 was $180.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.54% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of February 17, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.28 (6.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: December 5, 2025
a = 3.9290
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.67%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9290 + 0.0007 × 946 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(4.6678)
= $106.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9290 + 0.0007 × 946 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(4.5309)
= $92.84
December 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9290 + 0.0007 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.2382)
= $188.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9290 + 0.0007 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.1012)
= $164.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.51% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of February 17, 2026 was $180.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2025
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 6.0090
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 5.02%
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0090 + -0.0005 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.1960)
= $180.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0090 + -0.0005 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.1470)
= $171.92
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0090 + -0.0005 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.1366)
= $170.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0090 + -0.0005 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.0876)
= $162.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.54% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of February 17, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.28 (6.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.