Stock Price Trends

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)

Atmos Energy Corporation, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is one of the United States' largest natural-gas-only distributors.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.96% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $162.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.95% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 3.5280

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0330

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.13%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5280 + 0.0008 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.7285)
= $113.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5280 + 0.0008 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.5964)
= $99.12

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5280 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(5.1299)
= $169.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5280 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.9978)
= $148.08

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.96% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $162.66 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 9, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 3.9686

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0280

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.86%

September 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9686 + 0.0006 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.9571)
= $142.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9686 + 0.0006 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.8451)
= $127.11

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9686 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(5.0983)
= $163.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9686 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.9862)
= $146.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.95% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.