Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
Atmos Energy Corporation, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is one of the United States' largest natural-gas-only distributors.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $154.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 3.7610
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0361
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.54%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.6829)
= $108.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.5384)
= $93.54
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.1451)
= $171.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.0006)
= $148.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $154.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 6.2845
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0133) – 1
= 5.47%
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0974)
= $163.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0442)
= $155.11
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0497)
= $155.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.9965)
= $147.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.