Stock Price Trends

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)

Atmos Energy Corporation, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is one of the United States' largest natural-gas-only distributors.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $154.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 3.7610

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0361

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.54%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,182 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.6829)
= $108.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,182 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.5384)
= $93.54

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.1451)
= $171.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7610 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(5.0006)
= $148.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.00% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $154.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 22, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 6.2845

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0133

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0133) – 1
= 5.47%

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0974)
= $163.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0442)
= $155.11

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.0497)
= $155.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.9965)
= $147.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
  • ATO price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.