UGI Corporation (UGI)
UGI Corporation is a diversified energy company headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, specializing in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of natural gas and propane. With a strong presence both in the United States and internationally, UGI serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its comprehensive energy solutions. The company is committed to sustainable energy practices and enhancing customer experience, positioning itself strategically within the evolving energy landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.53% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of February 17, 2026 was $38.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.17% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of February 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UGI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2023
End date: February 17, 2026
a = 2.0825
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0688
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0688) – 1
= 31.65%
September 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0825 + 0.0009 × 953 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.0520)
= $21.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0825 + 0.0009 × 953 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(2.7770)
= $16.07
February 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0825 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.8133)
= $45.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0825 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.5383)
= $34.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.53% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of February 17, 2026 was $38.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2025
End date: February 17, 2026
a = 2.7116
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.98%
February 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7116 + 0.0005 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.5356)
= $34.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7116 + 0.0005 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.3452)
= $28.37
February 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7116 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.7254)
= $41.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7116 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.5350)
= $34.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.17% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of February 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.