UGI Corporation (UGI)
UGI Corporation distributes, stores, transports, and markets energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.15% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.69% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UGI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2024
End date: July 1, 2025
a = 0.8603
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.54%
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8603 + 0.0015 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.1121)
= $22.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8603 + 0.0015 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(2.9253)
= $18.64
July 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8603 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.6987)
= $40.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8603 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(3.5119)
= $33.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.15% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $35.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2025
End date: July 1, 2025
a = 1.6353
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0290
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.32%
January 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6353 + 0.0011 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.4808)
= $32.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6353 + 0.0011 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.3647)
= $28.92
July 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6353 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.6432)
= $38.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6353 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(3.5271)
= $34.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.69% per annum.
- UGI price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.