Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)
Northwest Natural Holding Company, through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, provides regulated natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, industrial and transportation customers in Oregon and Southwest Washington. The company is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.77% per annum.
- NWN price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $43.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.71% per annum.
- NWN price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025
a = 2.8470
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.77%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0005 × 1,363 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.5894)
= $36.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0005 × 1,363 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.4517)
= $31.55
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.8177)
= $45.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(3.6800)
= $39.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.77% per annum.
- NWN price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $43.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025
a = 2.1282
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.38%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1282 + 0.0009 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.6745)
= $39.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1282 + 0.0009 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.6033)
= $36.72
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1282 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.8000)
= $44.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1282 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.7288)
= $41.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.71% per annum.
- NWN price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.