Stock Price Trends

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK)

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation is a power supply company. The company is headquartered in Dover, Delaware.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.50% per annum.
  • CPK price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $122.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.91 (8.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.87% per annum.
  • CPK price at the close of September 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: May 8, 2025

a = 3.7619

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0371

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0371) – 1
= 15.99%

September 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7619 + 0.0007 × 1,105 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.5717)
= $96.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7619 + 0.0007 × 1,105 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.4233)
= $83.37

May 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7619 + 0.0007 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.9637)
= $143.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7619 + 0.0007 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(4.8154)
= $123.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.50% per annum.
  • CPK price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $122.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.91 (8.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: September 16, 2025

a = 4.6792

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0332

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.22%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6792 + 0.0001 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.8581)
= $128.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6792 + 0.0001 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.7251)
= $112.74

September 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6792 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.8873)
= $132.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6792 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.7544)
= $116.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.87% per annum.
  • CPK price at the close of September 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.