Stock Price Trends

Spire Inc (SR)

Spire Inc. engages in the purchase, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and other end-users of natural gas in the United States. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.91% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.51% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.9877

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0324

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0324) – 1
= 13.84%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9877 + 0.0007 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.0472)
= $57.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9877 + 0.0007 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(3.9175)
= $50.28

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9877 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.3992)
= $81.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9877 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0324)
= Exp(4.2695)
= $71.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.91% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 12, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.0129

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0251

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0251) – 1
= 10.54%

December 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0129 + 0.0013 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.2396)
= $69.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0129 + 0.0013 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.1394)
= $62.77

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0129 + 0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.4289)
= $83.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0129 + 0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.3287)
= $75.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.51% per annum.
  • SR price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.