Spire Inc (SR)
Spire Inc. engages in the purchase, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and other end-users of natural gas in the United States. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.69% per annum.
- SR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.34 (10.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.56% per annum.
- SR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.30 (1.98%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 30, 2022
End date: April 18, 2024
a = 4.4687
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0468
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0468) – 1
= 20.61%
March 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y675)
= Exp(a + b × X675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4687 + -0.0002 × 978 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.3187)
= $75.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y675)
= Exp(a + b × X675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4687 + -0.0002 × 978 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.1314)
= $62.26
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4687 + -0.0002 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.1319)
= $62.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4687 + -0.0002 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.9445)
= $51.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.69% per annum.
- SR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.34 (10.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.6169
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.55%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + 0.0003 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.0888)
= $59.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + 0.0003 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(3.9530)
= $52.09
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.1870)
= $65.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.0512)
= $57.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.56% per annum.
- SR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.30 (1.98%).