Stock Price Trends

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company. The company is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.21% per annum.
  • NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.96% per annum.
  • NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 2.3381

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0409

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.75%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.8978)
= $49.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.7344)
= $41.86

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.4208)
= $83.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.2574)
= $70.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.21% per annum.
  • NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025

a = 0.5461

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 116.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.1578)
= $63.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.0180)
= $55.59

May 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.4888)
= $89.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.3490)
= $77.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.96% per annum.
  • NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.