National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company. The company is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.21% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.96% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025
a = 2.3381
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.75%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.8978)
= $49.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.7344)
= $41.86
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.4208)
= $83.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3381 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.2574)
= $70.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.21% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: May 7, 2025
a = 0.5461
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 116.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.1578)
= $63.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.0180)
= $55.59
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.4888)
= $89.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5461 + 0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.3490)
= $77.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 116.96% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.