National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company. The company is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.78% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $84.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.37% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 2.3227
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.69%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3227 + 0.0011 × 1,294 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.8835)
= $48.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3227 + 0.0011 × 1,294 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.7206)
= $41.29
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3227 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.4905)
= $89.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3227 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.3277)
= $75.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.78% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $84.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 1.3833
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0347
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0347) – 1
= 14.87%
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.1260)
= $61.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.9874)
= $53.91
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.5386)
= $93.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3833 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(4.4000)
= $81.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.37% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.