National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company. The company is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.69% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.07 (21.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.37 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: March 5, 2024
a = 4.6771
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.70%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6771 + -0.0005 × 950 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.2958)
= $73.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y655)
= Exp(a + b × X655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6771 + -0.0005 × 950 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.1076)
= $60.80
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6771 + -0.0005 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.9285)
= $50.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6771 + -0.0005 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.7403)
= $42.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.69% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $57.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.07 (21.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: June 11, 2024
a = 1.3300
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0209
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.72%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3300 + 0.0015 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(3.8660)
= $47.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3300 + 0.0015 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(3.7824)
= $43.92
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3300 + 0.0015 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(4.0902)
= $59.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3300 + 0.0015 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(4.0066)
= $54.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
- NFG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.37 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.