Penumbra Inc (PEN)
Penumbra, Inc. is a leading medical device company that specializes in designing, developing, and manufacturing innovative products aimed at treating neurological and vascular conditions. Headquartered in Alameda, California, the company operates globally, with a presence in key markets such as the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. Penumbra's commitment to advancing healthcare through cutting-edge technology positions it as a critical player in the medical device industry, focusing on enhancing patient outcomes and clinician experience.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.30% per annum.
- PEN price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $339.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.53 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.30% per annum.
- PEN price at the close of February 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $38.74 (12.89%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: May 27, 2025
a = 3.6742
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0775
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0775) – 1
= 36.35%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6742 + 0.0013 × 1,150 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(5.3161)
= $203.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6742 + 0.0013 × 1,150 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(5.0060)
= $149.31
May 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6742 + 0.0013 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(5.8397)
= $343.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6742 + 0.0013 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(5.5297)
= $252.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.30% per annum.
- PEN price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $339.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.53 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: November 20, 2025
a = 5.5026
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 31.98%
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5026 + 0.0000 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.6890)
= $295.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5026 + 0.0000 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.4115)
= $223.97
November 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5026 + 0.0000 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.7026)
= $299.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5026 + 0.0000 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.4251)
= $227.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.30% per annum.
- PEN price at the close of February 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $38.74 (12.89%).