Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW)
Edwards Lifesciences is an American medical technology company headquartered in Irvine, California, specializing in artificial heart valves and hemodynamic monitoring.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.30% per annum.
- EW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $62.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- EW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.32 (10.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2021
End date: January 30, 2024
a = 5.2005
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0958
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.67%
June 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2005 + -0.0006 × 686 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.9890)
= $146.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2005 + -0.0006 × 686 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.6060)
= $100.08
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2005 + -0.0006 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.4249)
= $83.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2005 + -0.0006 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(4.0419)
= $56.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.30% per annum.
- EW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $62.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.1912
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0961
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0961) – 1
= 46.85%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1912 + 0.0001 × 1,150 + 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.5378)
= $93.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1912 + 0.0001 × 1,150 – 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.1536)
= $63.66
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1912 + 0.0001 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.6280)
= $102.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1912 + 0.0001 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0961)
= Exp(4.2438)
= $69.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.02% per annum.
- EW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.32 (10.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.