Embecta Corp (EMBC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.30% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $10.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.40% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMBC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 6.0763
b = -0.0049
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.53%
December 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0763 + -0.0049 × 634 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(3.0524)
= $21.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0763 + -0.0049 × 634 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(2.8824)
= $17.86
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y527)
= Exp(a + b × X527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0763 + -0.0049 × 768 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(2.3953)
= $10.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y527)
= Exp(a + b × X527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0763 + -0.0049 × 768 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(2.2253)
= $9.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.30% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $10.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.8415
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.37%
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y509)
= Exp(a + b × X509 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8415 + -0.0007 × 742 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(2.3967)
= $10.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y509)
= Exp(a + b × X509 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8415 + -0.0007 × 742 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(2.3071)
= $10.05
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y527)
= Exp(a + b × X527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8415 + -0.0007 × 768 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(2.3795)
= $10.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y527)
= Exp(a + b × X527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8415 + -0.0007 × 768 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(2.2900)
= $9.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.40% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.