Embecta Corp (EMBC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.16% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.30 (109.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.53% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.84 (13.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMBC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: November 14, 2023
a = 4.4430
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0814
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0814) – 1
= 38.47%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4430 + -0.0031 × 307 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(3.6692)
= $39.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4430 + -0.0031 × 307 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(3.3437)
= $28.32
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4430 + -0.0031 × 592 + 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(2.7997)
= $16.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4430 + -0.0031 × 592 – 2 × 0.0814)
= Exp(2.4741)
= $11.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.16% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.30 (109.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.9180
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1314) – 1
= 69.17%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9180 + -0.0018 × 307 + 2 × 0.1314)
= Exp(3.6222)
= $37.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y210)
= Exp(a + b × X210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9180 + -0.0018 × 307 – 2 × 0.1314)
= Exp(3.0965)
= $22.12
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9180 + -0.0018 × 846 + 2 × 0.1314)
= Exp(2.6415)
= $14.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y580)
= Exp(a + b × X580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9180 + -0.0018 × 846 – 2 × 0.1314)
= Exp(2.1158)
= $8.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.53% per annum.
- EMBC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.84 (13.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.