Stock Price Trends

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Abbott Laboratories is an American multinational medical devices and health care company with headquarters in Abbott Park, Illinois, United States. The company was founded by Chicago physician Wallace Calvin Abbott in 1888 to formulate known drugs; today, it sells medical devices, diagnostics, branded generic medicines and nutritional products. It split off its research-based pharmaceuticals business into AbbVie in 2013.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.39% per annum.
  • ABT price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $104.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.53% per annum.
  • ABT price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 25, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 4.8898

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0608

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.51%

January 25, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8898 + -0.0002 × 612 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.9006)
= $134.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8898 + -0.0002 × 612 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.6576)
= $105.39

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8898 + -0.0002 × 1,663 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.7105)
= $111.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8898 + -0.0002 × 1,663 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.4675)
= $87.14

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.39% per annum.
  • ABT price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $104.23 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 4.5028

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0553

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0553) – 1
= 24.77%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5028 + 0.0001 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.7194)
= $112.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y768)
= Exp(a + b × X768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5028 + 0.0001 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.4981)
= $89.84

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5028 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.7872)
= $119.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5028 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.5659)
= $96.15

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.53% per annum.
  • ABT price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.