Adapthealth Corp (AHCO)
AdaptHealth Corp. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.23% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $9.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.81% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2020
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.2158
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2002
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2002) – 1
= 122.73%
November 3, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2158 + -0.0011 × 544 + 2 × 0.2002)
= Exp(3.9917)
= $54.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2158 + -0.0011 × 544 – 2 × 0.2002)
= Exp(3.1909)
= $24.31
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2158 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2002)
= Exp(2.5199)
= $12.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2158 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2002)
= Exp(1.7191)
= $5.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.23% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $9.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 20, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = -4.5586
b = 0.0038
s = 0.1090
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 303.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1090) – 1
= 54.68%
December 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5586 + 0.0038 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(2.1068)
= $8.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5586 + 0.0038 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(1.6707)
= $5.32
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5586 + 0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(2.6422)
= $14.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5586 + 0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1090)
= Exp(2.2060)
= $9.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.81% per annum.
- AHCO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.