Stock Price Trends

Adapthealth Corp (AHCO)

AdaptHealth Corp. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.61% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $8.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (5.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.19% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 1.3993

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1180

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1180) – 1
= 60.29%

September 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3993 + 0.0006 × 1,236 + 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(2.3255)
= $10.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3993 + 0.0006 × 1,236 – 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(1.8537)
= $6.38

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3993 + 0.0006 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(2.6405)
= $14.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3993 + 0.0006 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.1180)
= Exp(2.1687)
= $8.75

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.61% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $8.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (5.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 2.6941

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0765

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.81%

February 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6941 + -0.0002 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(2.5198)
= $12.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6941 + -0.0002 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(2.2137)
= $9.15

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6941 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(2.4198)
= $11.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6941 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(2.1138)
= $8.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.19% per annum.
  • AHCO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.