Stock Price Trends

Teleflex Incorporated (TFX)

Teleflex Incorporated, headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, is an American provider of specialty medical devices for a range of procedures in critical care and surgery.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.41% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $200.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.93 (11.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.61% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 30, 2020
End date: March 20, 2023

a = 6.6049

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0938

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0938) – 1
= 45.55%

November 30, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6049 + -0.0009 × 571 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(6.2916)
= $539.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y394)
= Exp(a + b × X394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6049 + -0.0009 × 571 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(5.9162)
= $370.99

March 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6049 + -0.0009 × 1,411 + 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(5.5545)
= $258.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6049 + -0.0009 × 1,411 – 2 × 0.0938)
= Exp(5.1791)
= $177.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.41% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $200.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.93 (11.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024

a = 5.5869

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0897

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0897) – 1
= 43.15%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5869 + -0.0001 × 1,128 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(5.6527)
= $285.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y779)
= Exp(a + b × X779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5869 + -0.0001 × 1,128 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(5.2940)
= $199.14

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5869 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(5.5825)
= $265.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5869 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(5.2238)
= $185.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.61% per annum.
  • TFX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.