Stock Price Trends

Baxter International Inc (BAX)

Baxter International Inc. is an American multinational health care company with headquarters in Deerfield, Illinois. The company primarily focuses on products to treat hemophilia, kidney disease, immune disorders and other chronic and acute medical conditions.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.10% per annum.
  • BAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $30.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.51% per annum.
  • BAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.83 (2.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 9, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 4.0099

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0833

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0833) – 1
= 39.57%

January 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + -0.0003 × 984 + 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(3.8894)
= $48.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y678)
= Exp(a + b × X678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + -0.0003 × 984 – 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(3.5561)
= $35.03

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + -0.0003 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(3.6517)
= $38.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + -0.0003 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0833)
= Exp(3.3183)
= $27.61

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.10% per annum.
  • BAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $30.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 24, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 11.7556

b = -0.0046

s = 0.0457

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0046) – 1
= -81.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.07%

February 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7556 + -0.0046 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.7023)
= $40.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7556 + -0.0046 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.5194)
= $33.76

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7556 + -0.0046 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.4341)
= $31.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7556 + -0.0046 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.2512)
= $25.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.51% per annum.
  • BAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.83 (2.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.