Baxter International Inc. (BAX)
baxter provides a broad portfolio of essential renal and hospital products, including home, acute and in-center dialysis; sterile iv solutions; infusion systems and devices; parenteral nutrition; biosurgery products and anesthetics; and pharmacy automation, software and services. the company’s global footprint and the critical nature of its products and services play a key role in expanding access to healthcare in emerging and developed countries. baxter’s employees worldwide are building upon the company’s rich heritage of medical breakthroughs to advance the next generation of healthcare innovations that enable patient care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.91% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $36.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 175.58% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 5.7442
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0865
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0865) – 1
= 41.32%
September 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y689)
= Exp(a + b × X689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7442 + -0.0012 × 998 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.7008)
= $110.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y689)
= Exp(a + b × X689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7442 + -0.0012 × 998 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(4.3549)
= $77.86
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7442 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(3.6941)
= $40.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7442 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0865)
= Exp(3.3483)
= $28.45
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: December 8, 2023
a = -1.4569
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 175.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.38%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4569 + 0.0028 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.4861)
= $32.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4569 + 0.0028 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.4149)
= $30.41
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4569 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.6444)
= $38.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4569 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(3.5732)
= $35.63