Baxter International Inc (BAX)
Baxter International Inc. is an American multinational health care company with headquarters in Deerfield, Illinois. The company primarily focuses on products to treat hemophilia, kidney disease, immune disorders and other chronic and acute medical conditions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.63% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $36.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.39% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.92 (17.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: January 4, 2024
a = 5.1824
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1011
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1011) – 1
= 49.82%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1824 + -0.0010 × 688 + 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(4.7221)
= $112.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1824 + -0.0010 × 688 – 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(4.3178)
= $75.02
January 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1824 + -0.0010 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(3.7457)
= $42.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1824 + -0.0010 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.1011)
= Exp(3.3414)
= $28.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.63% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $36.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 0.6226
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.47%
October 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6226 + 0.0018 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.5340)
= $34.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6226 + 0.0018 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.4164)
= $30.46
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6226 + 0.0018 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.8533)
= $47.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6226 + 0.0018 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.7357)
= $41.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.39% per annum.
- BAX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.92 (17.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.