Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX)
Becton, Dickinson and Company, also known as BD, is an American multinational medical technology company that manufactures and sells medical devices, instrument systems, and reagents. BD also provides consulting and analytics services in certain geographies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.01% per annum.
- BDX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $233.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.85 (6.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.34% per annum.
- BDX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.58 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: January 30, 2024
a = 7.1955
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0271
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0271) – 1
= 11.46%
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1955 + -0.0010 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.6838)
= $294.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1955 + -0.0010 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.5754)
= $263.85
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1955 + -0.0010 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.4866)
= $241.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1955 + -0.0010 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0271)
= Exp(5.3781)
= $216.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.01% per annum.
- BDX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $233.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.85 (6.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 5.0927
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0143
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.87%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0927 + 0.0002 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.4839)
= $240.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0927 + 0.0002 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.4269)
= $227.44
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0927 + 0.0002 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.5177)
= $249.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0927 + 0.0002 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.4607)
= $235.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.34% per annum.
- BDX price at the close of May 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.58 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.