STERIS plc (STE)
Steris Corporation is an American Irish-domiciled medical equipment company specializing in sterilization and surgical products for the US healthcare system.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.52% per annum.
- STE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $210.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- STE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.44 (1.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: June 13, 2023
a = 5.5178
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0889
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0889) – 1
= 42.70%
April 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5178 + -0.0002 × 700 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.5663)
= $261.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5178 + -0.0002 × 700 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.2108)
= $183.23
June 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5178 + -0.0002 × 1,496 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.4194)
= $225.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5178 + -0.0002 × 1,496 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.0638)
= $158.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.52% per annum.
- STE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $210.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: April 1, 2024
a = 4.4830
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.74%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4830 + 0.0005 × 1,229 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.2741)
= $195.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4830 + 0.0005 × 1,229 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.0371)
= $154.02
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4830 + 0.0005 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.5805)
= $265.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4830 + 0.0005 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.3435)
= $209.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- STE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.44 (1.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.