Stock Price Trends

STERIS plc (STE)

Steris Corporation is an American Irish-domiciled medical equipment company specializing in sterilization and surgical products for the US healthcare system.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.56% per annum.
  • STE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $227.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (9.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.22% per annum.
  • STE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: June 12, 2023

a = 5.5022

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0889

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0889) – 1
= 42.70%

April 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5022 + -0.0002 × 622 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.5644)
= $260.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5022 + -0.0002 × 622 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.2088)
= $182.87

June 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5022 + -0.0002 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.4166)
= $225.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5022 + -0.0002 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(5.0610)
= $157.75

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.56% per annum.
  • STE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $227.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (9.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.7064

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0643

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.31%

September 16, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7064 + 0.0004 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.3078)
= $201.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y792)
= Exp(a + b × X792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7064 + 0.0004 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.0508)
= $156.14

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7064 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.5871)
= $266.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7064 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.3300)
= $206.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.22% per annum.
  • STE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.