Medtronic PLC (MDT)
Medtronic plc is an American-Irish registered medical device company that primarily operates in the United States. Medtronic has an operational and executive headquarters in Fridley, Minnesota in the US.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.73% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $79.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.18 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 31, 2020
End date: December 11, 2023
a = 5.0659
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0765
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.78%
December 31, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0005 × 612 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.9319)
= $138.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0005 × 612 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.6261)
= $102.11
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0005 × 1,687 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.4280)
= $83.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0659 + -0.0005 × 1,687 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.1221)
= $61.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.73% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $79.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.18 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.2413
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.73%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2413 + 0.0001 × 1,241 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.4650)
= $86.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2413 + 0.0001 × 1,241 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.2441)
= $69.69
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2413 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.5182)
= $91.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2413 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.2973)
= $73.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.39% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.