Stock Price Trends

TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, is dedicated to transforming organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.28% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of December 19, 2025 was $127.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.65% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of December 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: December 19, 2025

a = 3.7375

b = 0.0006

s = 0.2761

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2761) – 1
= 201.80%

November 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7375 + 0.0006 × 683 + 2 × 0.2761)
= Exp(4.6965)
= $109.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7375 + 0.0006 × 683 – 2 × 0.2761)
= Exp(3.5919)
= $36.30

December 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7375 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2761)
= Exp(5.3760)
= $216.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7375 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2761)
= Exp(4.2714)
= $71.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.28% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of December 19, 2025 was $127.67 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 3, 2024
End date: December 19, 2025

a = 1.0015

b = 0.0022

s = 0.1490

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1490) – 1
= 81.50%

December 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0015 + 0.0022 × 1,443 + 2 × 0.1490)
= Exp(4.4641)
= $86.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0015 + 0.0022 × 1,443 – 2 × 0.1490)
= Exp(3.8680)
= $47.85

December 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0015 + 0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1490)
= Exp(5.2996)
= $200.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0015 + 0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1490)
= Exp(4.7035)
= $110.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.65% per annum.
  • TMDX price at the close of December 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.