DexCom Inc (DXCM)
DexCom, Inc. is a company that develops, manufactures, and distributes continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for diabetes management. It operates internationally with headquarters in San Diego, California, and has a manufacturing facility in Mesa, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.56% per annum.
- DXCM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $127.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 129.46% per annum.
- DXCM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.55 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DXCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2020
End date: March 5, 2024
a = 4.5581
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1672
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1672) – 1
= 95.21%
April 29, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5581 + 0.0001 × 356 + 2 × 0.1672)
= Exp(4.9267)
= $137.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5581 + 0.0001 × 356 – 2 × 0.1672)
= Exp(4.2578)
= $70.65
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5581 + 0.0001 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.1672)
= Exp(5.0616)
= $157.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5581 + 0.0001 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.1672)
= Exp(4.3927)
= $80.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.56% per annum.
- DXCM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $127.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2023
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 0.8592
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0812
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 129.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0812) – 1
= 38.38%
September 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8592 + 0.0023 × 1,590 + 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(4.6396)
= $103.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8592 + 0.0023 × 1,590 – 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(4.3148)
= $74.80
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8592 + 0.0023 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(5.1470)
= $171.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8592 + 0.0023 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(4.8222)
= $124.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 129.46% per annum.
- DXCM price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.55 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.