Insulet Corporation (PODD)
Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The company is headquartered in Acton, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.71% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $190.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.40% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PODD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: June 4, 2024
a = 7.4181
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1572) – 1
= 87.54%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4181 + -0.0013 × 1,197 + 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(6.1271)
= $458.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4181 + -0.0013 × 1,197 – 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(5.4983)
= $244.28
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4181 + -0.0013 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(5.3519)
= $211.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4181 + -0.0013 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(4.7231)
= $112.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.71% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $190.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 2.1484
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.95%
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1484 + 0.0017 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.1604)
= $174.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1484 + 0.0017 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.0124)
= $150.27
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1484 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.3895)
= $219.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1484 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.2415)
= $188.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.40% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.