Insulet Corporation (PODD)
Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The company is headquartered in Acton, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.26% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $184.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.26% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PODD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 7.6272
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1580
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1580) – 1
= 88.14%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6272 + -0.0014 × 1,276 + 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(6.1420)
= $465.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6272 + -0.0014 × 1,276 – 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(5.5100)
= $247.16
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6272 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(5.3657)
= $213.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6272 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1580)
= Exp(4.7336)
= $113.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.26% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $184.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.3424
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1199
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1199) – 1
= 61.57%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3424 + 0.0005 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.1199)
= Exp(5.3462)
= $209.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3424 + 0.0005 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.1199)
= Exp(4.8664)
= $129.85
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3424 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1199)
= Exp(5.4634)
= $235.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3424 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1199)
= Exp(4.9837)
= $146.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.26% per annum.
- PODD price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.