# Hologic Inc (HOLX)

Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.65% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $73.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of HOLX price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2020

End date: May 23, 2024

a = 4.2451

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0675

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1

= 1.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1

= 30.98%

#### October 2, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{343})

= Exp(a + b × X_{343} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 497 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 497 + 2 × 0.0675)

= Exp(4.4024)

= $81.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{343})

= Exp(a + b × X_{343} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 497 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 497 – 2 × 0.0675)

= Exp(4.1325)

= $62.33

#### May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0675)

= Exp(4.4621)

= $86.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0675)

= Exp(4.1922)

= $66.17

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.65% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $73.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023

End date: May 23, 2024

a = 3.3659

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0210

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1

= 21.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0210) – 1

= 8.77%

#### September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,092})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,092} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0210)

= Exp(4.2649)

= $71.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,092})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,092} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0210)

= Exp(4.1809)

= $65.42

#### May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0210)

= Exp(4.3946)

= $81.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0210)

= Exp(4.3106)

= $74.48

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.