Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $63.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.82 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 447.50% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: May 23, 2025
a = 6.7359
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.67%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.5653)
= $96.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.4026)
= $81.67
May 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.1192)
= $61.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.9564)
= $52.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $63.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.82 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2025
End date: June 18, 2025
a = -4.2916
b = 0.0047
s = 0.0331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 447.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.15%
May 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.0426)
= $56.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.9102)
= $49.91
June 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.2615)
= $70.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.1292)
= $62.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 447.50% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.