Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.65% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $58.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.75% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 7.5795
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0246
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.33%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5795 + -0.0019 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(4.4784)
= $88.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5795 + -0.0019 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(4.3801)
= $79.85
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5795 + -0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(4.0972)
= $60.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5795 + -0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.9989)
= $54.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.65% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $58.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.9175
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0109
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0109) – 1
= 4.45%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0006 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.0732)
= $58.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0006 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.0297)
= $56.24
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.0851)
= $59.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.0416)
= $56.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.75% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.