Stock Price Trends

Hologic Inc (HOLX)

Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.13% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2020
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 4.2506

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0663

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.38%

October 2, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 431 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.4013)
= $81.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 431 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.1361)
= $62.56

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.4600)
= $86.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.1947)
= $66.33

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 14, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -0.3683

b = 0.0026

s = 0.0109

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 158.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0109) – 1
= 4.46%

June 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2833)
= $72.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2397)
= $69.38

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.3924)
= $80.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.3488)
= $77.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.13% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.