Stock Price Trends

Hologic Inc (HOLX)

Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $63.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.82 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 447.50% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: May 23, 2025

a = 6.7359

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0407

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.67%

July 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.5653)
= $96.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.4026)
= $81.67

May 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.1192)
= $61.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7359 + -0.0015 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.9564)
= $52.27

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.21% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $63.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.82 (8.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2025
End date: June 18, 2025

a = -4.2916

b = 0.0047

s = 0.0331

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 447.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0331) – 1
= 14.15%

May 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.0426)
= $56.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(3.9102)
= $49.91

June 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.2615)
= $70.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2916 + 0.0047 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0331)
= Exp(4.1292)
= $62.13

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 447.50% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.