Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.13% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2020
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.2506
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0663
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.38%
October 2, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 431 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.4013)
= $81.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 431 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.1361)
= $62.56
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.4600)
= $86.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2506 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.1947)
= $66.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.55% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -0.3683
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0109
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 158.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0109) – 1
= 4.46%
June 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2833)
= $72.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2397)
= $69.38
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.3924)
= $80.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3683 + 0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.3488)
= $77.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.13% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.