Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.70% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $75.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.19% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2020
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.2430
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0679
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0679) – 1
= 31.19%
September 30, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y352)
= Exp(a + b × X352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0000 × 510 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.4023)
= $81.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y352)
= Exp(a + b × X352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0000 × 510 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.1307)
= $62.22
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.4630)
= $86.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2430 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.1915)
= $66.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.70% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $75.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.2306
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.98%
September 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2306 + 0.0006 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.2563)
= $70.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2306 + 0.0006 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.1796)
= $65.34
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2306 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.3930)
= $80.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2306 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.3163)
= $74.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.19% per annum.
- HOLX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.