Stock Price Trends

Hologic Inc (HOLX)

Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company primarily focused on women's health; it sells medical devices for diagnostics, surgery, and medical imaging.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.65% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $73.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2020
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 4.2451

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0675

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 30.98%

October 2, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 497 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.4024)
= $81.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y343)
= Exp(a + b × X343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 497 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.1325)
= $62.33

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.4621)
= $86.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2451 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.1922)
= $66.17

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.65% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $73.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: May 23, 2024

a = 3.3659

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0210

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0210) – 1
= 8.77%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0210)
= Exp(4.2649)
= $71.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0210)
= Exp(4.1809)
= $65.42

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0210)
= Exp(4.3946)
= $81.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3659 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0210)
= Exp(4.3106)
= $74.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
  • HOLX price at the close of May 23, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.