# American Airlines Group (AAL)

American Airlines Group Inc. is an American publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 288.85% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $13.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 941.02% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of AAL price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024

End date: November 5, 2024

a = -4.2033

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0320

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1

= 288.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1

= 13.63%

#### August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,191})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,191} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0320)

= Exp(2.3010)

= $9.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,191})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,191} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0320)

= Exp(2.1732)

= $8.79

#### November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0320)

= Exp(2.6544)

= $14.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0320)

= Exp(2.5266)

= $12.51

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 288.85% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $13.19 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024

End date: November 5, 2024

a = -9.0828

b = 0.0064

s = 0.0311

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0064) – 1

= 941.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1

= 13.26%

#### September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,231})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,231} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0311)

= Exp(2.4687)

= $11.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,231})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,231} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0311)

= Exp(2.3442)

= $10.42

#### November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0311)

= Exp(2.6998)

= $14.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0311)

= Exp(2.5752)

= $13.13

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 941.02% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.