American Airlines Group (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc. is an American publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 288.85% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $13.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 941.02% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = -4.2033
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0320
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 288.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.63%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(2.3010)
= $9.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(2.1732)
= $8.79
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(2.6544)
= $14.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2033 + 0.0037 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(2.5266)
= $12.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 288.85% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was $13.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = -9.0828
b = 0.0064
s = 0.0311
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0064) – 1
= 941.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0311) – 1
= 13.26%
September 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(2.4687)
= $11.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(2.3442)
= $10.42
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(2.6998)
= $14.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-9.0828 + 0.0064 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0311)
= Exp(2.5752)
= $13.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 941.02% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of November 5, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.