American Airlines Group (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is a leading airline holding company based in Fort Worth, Texas, and operates the world's largest airline in terms of passenger miles flown. With a robust network of domestic and international routes, AAL emphasizes operational excellence and customer experience through its diverse fleet and innovative technology solutions. The company is committed to sustainability and has implemented various initiatives to reduce its carbon footprint. As a publicly traded entity, American Airlines Group continues to explore strategic growth opportunities while maintaining a strong focus on financial performance and shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.66% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $15.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,451.97% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: December 9, 2025
a = 0.5024
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0636
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.98%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5024 + 0.0012 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(2.4481)
= $11.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5024 + 0.0012 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(2.1936)
= $8.97
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5024 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(2.7448)
= $15.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5024 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(2.4903)
= $12.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.66% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $15.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: December 9, 2025
a = -15.1264
b = 0.0098
s = 0.0183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0098) – 1
= 3,451.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.58%
November 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-15.1264 + 0.0098 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(2.5454)
= $12.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-15.1264 + 0.0098 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(2.4724)
= $11.85
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-15.1264 + 0.0098 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(2.7606)
= $15.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-15.1264 + 0.0098 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(2.6876)
= $14.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,451.97% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.