American Airlines Group (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc. is an American publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.95% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $13.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.42 (73.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.62% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2020
End date: November 17, 2021
a = 2.0113
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1598
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 57.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1598) – 1
= 89.46%
March 5, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0113 + 0.0013 × 311 + 2 × 0.1598)
= Exp(2.7202)
= $15.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0113 + 0.0013 × 311 – 2 × 0.1598)
= Exp(2.0812)
= $8.01
November 17, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0113 + 0.0013 × 933 + 2 × 0.1598)
= Exp(3.4992)
= $33.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0113 + 0.0013 × 933 – 2 × 0.1598)
= Exp(2.8601)
= $17.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.95% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $13.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.42 (73.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 28, 2021
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.3194
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1228
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1228) – 1
= 63.44%
January 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3194 + -0.0004 × 640 + 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(3.2878)
= $26.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3194 + -0.0004 × 640 – 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.7965)
= $16.39
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3194 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.7749)
= $16.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3194 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.2836)
= $9.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.62% per annum.
- AAL price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.