Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK)
Alaska Air Group is an airline holding company based in SeaTac, Washington, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.55% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $43.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.05 (42.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.01% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2021
End date: November 9, 2022
a = 4.7644
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0698
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0698) – 1
= 32.21%
February 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7644 + -0.0008 × 648 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(4.3801)
= $79.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7644 + -0.0008 × 648 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(4.1009)
= $60.40
November 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7644 + -0.0008 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(3.8699)
= $47.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7644 + -0.0008 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(3.5908)
= $36.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.55% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $43.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.05 (42.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2021
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.3687
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1006
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1006) – 1
= 49.52%
June 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3687 + -0.0004 × 777 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.2485)
= $70.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3687 + -0.0004 × 777 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(3.8463)
= $46.82
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3687 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(3.8146)
= $45.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3687 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(3.4124)
= $30.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.01% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.