Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK)
Alaska Air Group Inc. is a leading airline holding company headquartered in SeaTac, Washington, specializing in passenger and cargo air transportation across the United States and internationally. With a strong focus on customer service, operational efficiency, and sustainability, the company operates Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air, providing a comprehensive network of routes and modern fleet. Alaska Air Group is well-positioned in the competitive airline market, leveraging advanced technology and strategic initiatives to enhance travel experiences and drive growth. The company is committed to maintaining its status as a premier carrier while responding to evolving market dynamics and consumer demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.18% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of October 22, 2025 was $47.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $46.85 (5,613.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.22% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of October 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: November 1, 2023
a = 9.0084
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0151) – 1
= 6.23%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0084 + -0.0051 × 1,049 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.7393)
= $42.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0084 + -0.0051 × 1,049 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.6789)
= $39.60
November 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0084 + -0.0051 × 1,104 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.4614)
= $31.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0084 + -0.0051 × 1,104 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.4011)
= $30.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.18% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of October 22, 2025 was $47.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $46.85 (5,613.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: October 22, 2025
a = 2.8104
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1465) – 1
= 79.68%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8104 + 0.0007 × 1,049 + 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(3.8401)
= $46.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8104 + 0.0007 × 1,049 – 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(3.2541)
= $25.90
October 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8104 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(4.3851)
= $80.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8104 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1465)
= Exp(3.7991)
= $44.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.22% per annum.
- ALK price at the close of October 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.