Stock Price Trends

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

alaska airlines has been flying since 1932 and is notably recognized as a stand-out performer among domestic carriers in the united states. we provide an exceptional travel experience to our customers with an unwavering commitment to a safe and reliable operation and our award-winning customer service. we were born in a state where aviation is a way of life, not a choice, and where people help each other because they believe it's the right thing to do — not because they're supposed to. much has changed over the years, but our unique heritage continues to serve as our compass point — our own magnetic "north." our values have been a part of who we are since our early beginnings in the state of alaska. we believe this combination of pride in our heritage and passion for our shared values has led to our success in setting the standard for genuine and caring service. alaska airlines and our sister carrier, horizon air, together serve 90 destinations in the lower 48, alaska, hawaii, ca

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.55% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $37.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.43 (13.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.46% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

February 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.55% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $37.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.43 (13.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

June 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.46% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.