Stock Price Trends

Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)

Southwest Airlines Co., typically referred to as Southwest, is one of the major airlines of the United States and the world's largest low-cost carrier airline. It is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.32% per annum.
  • LUV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $27.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.32% per annum.
  • LUV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LUV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 11, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.7624

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0820

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0820) – 1
= 38.84%

September 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7624 + 0.0004 × 1,229 + 2 × 0.0820)
= Exp(3.4065)
= $30.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7624 + 0.0004 × 1,229 – 2 × 0.0820)
= Exp(3.0784)
= $21.72

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7624 + 0.0004 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0820)
= Exp(3.6288)
= $37.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7624 + 0.0004 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0820)
= Exp(3.3006)
= $27.13

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.32% per annum.
  • LUV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $27.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.16 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.9843

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0691

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.84%

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9843 + -0.0015 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.6729)
= $39.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9843 + -0.0015 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.3965)
= $29.86

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9843 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.4567)
= $31.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9843 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.1803)
= $24.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.32% per annum.
  • LUV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.